Myers to Close

The blown save struck early and often for the 2011 Astros.  Opening day seemed to be a foreshadowing of what was to come.  I remember watching one game where the Astros relievers blew four saves in one game.  

The blown save is a bit of a strange stat in that a reliever that clearly has no intent to finish the game can be given a blown save if he loses the lead at any point during the game.  Since the hold stat was made up, shouldn't we be calling those blown holds.  That's not the point of this post, but that is just a personal beef I have with the blown save.

Now back to the task at hand.  Brad Mills announced that Brett Myers will be closing games this season.

I am not a subsriber to saving your ace reliever until the ninth inning, but if you can tell me who the Astros lights out reliever is, I will tell you when he should pitch.  My point is that we don't have much in the way of bullpen pitchers.  We have a few hard throwing guys with potential that are going to have to find a way to get the outs necessary to turn the game over to Myers.

Myers is not new to closing games.  He closed out games in 2007 for the Phillies when Tom Gordon went down with an injury.  He compiled 21 saves.

My initial reaction was to take a look at Brett's 2007 season on Baseball Reference.  His line for that year didn't seem very impressive.  He pitched in 68.2 innings, had an ERA 4.33, a WHIP of 1.282, walked 27, and had a BB/9 rate of 3.4.  He had a 10 plus strikeout per nine rate.

After looking at the stats a little deeper we find that Myers was much more effective as a reliever that season.  

Myers started three games, pitched 15.1 innnings, allowed 16 ER, a staggering 5.4 walks per nine, and an ERA of 9.39.  That is 15.1 innings of his total 68.2 innings.  I teach math for a living.  However, you don't need to teach math to understand the impact that statistics like this will have on final numbers.

Side note:  I hate walks.  Free baserunners, especially with no one out, have a way of coming back to bite you.  I especially hate walks from relievers in high leverage situations.

Let's look at Myers the reliever from 2007.

Myers was moved to relief after a second straight terrible start in 2007 after injuries decimated the Phillies bullpen.  He pitched 53.1 innings, allowed 17 ER, a much improved 3 walks per nine, and an ERA of 2.88.

If Myers the closer of 2012 can replicate those numbers, that gives a solid back end of the bullpen.

I also believe that this is a value building move from the front office.  Brett's value as a starter is known to teams around the league.  He is inconsistent and has been for most of his career.  His value as a reliever is still a big of an unknown.

Relievers pitch on a completely different schedule than starters do, and that might just be what jump starts Myers.  He just might be an medium starter, but he also may be an elite relief pitcher.  If he does perform as the closer, contenders are always looking for relief help.

What other impacts does this move have?

This means that Zach Duke, Livan Hernandez, Kyle Weiland, Jordan Lyles, and possibly Paul Clemens are fighting for two rotation spots instead of one assuming that Wandy, Norris, and Happ have three of the spots nailed down.

In conclusion, I like this move.  It is thinking outside of the box, which is something that we have been needing around here lately.  Myers has closed before, which makes him one of our most experienced relief pitchers.  What is a little sad is that he only has one year of relief under his belt.  We will see how it works out, but I suspect that if it does, Brett Myers will be pitching for somone else come July.