Myers to Close

The blown save struck early and often for the 2011 Astros.  Opening day seemed to be a foreshadowing of what was to come.  I remember watching one game where the Astros relievers blew four saves in one game.  

The blown save is a bit of a strange stat in that a reliever that clearly has no intent to finish the game can be given a blown save if he loses the lead at any point during the game.  Since the hold stat was made up, shouldn't we be calling those blown holds.  That's not the point of this post, but that is just a personal beef I have with the blown save.

Now back to the task at hand.  Brad Mills announced that Brett Myers will be closing games this season.

I am not a subsriber to saving your ace reliever until the ninth inning, but if you can tell me who the Astros lights out reliever is, I will tell you when he should pitch.  My point is that we don't have much in the way of bullpen pitchers.  We have a few hard throwing guys with potential that are going to have to find a way to get the outs necessary to turn the game over to Myers.

Myers is not new to closing games.  He closed out games in 2007 for the Phillies when Tom Gordon went down with an injury.  He compiled 21 saves.

My initial reaction was to take a look at Brett's 2007 season on Baseball Reference.  His line for that year didn't seem very impressive.  He pitched in 68.2 innings, had an ERA 4.33, a WHIP of 1.282, walked 27, and had a BB/9 rate of 3.4.  He had a 10 plus strikeout per nine rate.

After looking at the stats a little deeper we find that Myers was much more effective as a reliever that season.  

Myers started three games, pitched 15.1 innnings, allowed 16 ER, a staggering 5.4 walks per nine, and an ERA of 9.39.  That is 15.1 innings of his total 68.2 innings.  I teach math for a living.  However, you don't need to teach math to understand the impact that statistics like this will have on final numbers.

Side note:  I hate walks.  Free baserunners, especially with no one out, have a way of coming back to bite you.  I especially hate walks from relievers in high leverage situations.

Let's look at Myers the reliever from 2007.

Myers was moved to relief after a second straight terrible start in 2007 after injuries decimated the Phillies bullpen.  He pitched 53.1 innings, allowed 17 ER, a much improved 3 walks per nine, and an ERA of 2.88.

If Myers the closer of 2012 can replicate those numbers, that gives a solid back end of the bullpen.

I also believe that this is a value building move from the front office.  Brett's value as a starter is known to teams around the league.  He is inconsistent and has been for most of his career.  His value as a reliever is still a big of an unknown.

Relievers pitch on a completely different schedule than starters do, and that might just be what jump starts Myers.  He just might be an medium starter, but he also may be an elite relief pitcher.  If he does perform as the closer, contenders are always looking for relief help.

What other impacts does this move have?

This means that Zach Duke, Livan Hernandez, Kyle Weiland, Jordan Lyles, and possibly Paul Clemens are fighting for two rotation spots instead of one assuming that Wandy, Norris, and Happ have three of the spots nailed down.

In conclusion, I like this move.  It is thinking outside of the box, which is something that we have been needing around here lately.  Myers has closed before, which makes him one of our most experienced relief pitchers.  What is a little sad is that he only has one year of relief under his belt.  We will see how it works out, but I suspect that if it does, Brett Myers will be pitching for somone else come July.

Assessing the Catchers

Spring Training games start in a week, and most positions on the field are up for grabs.  We will look at each position, and I will make some predictions about what I think we will see on opening day and beyond.

Today we will look at the catchers that are in camp.

What's important in a catcher?  A catchers defense, ability to stop the running game, and handling of the pitching staff are the most important aspects of catching.  Many offensively challenged catchers have long big league careers, because they have mastered the the defensive side of things.  Brad Ausmus is a perfect example of this.  I remember the calls for Mitch Meluskey in 2000, because he presented more of an offensive threat than Brad.  We all know how that worked out.

Rene Garcia

Rene Garcia is a product of the 2008 draft, which is same draft that landed Jason Castro in the first round.  He is only 21 years old.  When one looks at Rene Garcia's stats on Baseball Cube or FanGraphs, we see a player that has struggled offensively since rookie ball.  He peaked at .295 in rookie league and hovers around .240 most others.  We aren't loooking at an offensive threat.  He doesn't hit for average or for power.

What does he do?

Gathering information on Garcia has been a challenge, but what I have found is that he has a good arm and is quick behind the plate.  I am looking forward to seeing more of him.

Realistically he will start 2012 in Corpus Christi or back in Lancaster to start the season.

Chris Wallace

I want to believe in Chris Wallace.   He is a product of Cypress Fairbanks High and the University of Houston.  Its great when local kids get the call from the hometown team.  He comes in ranked as our number 30 prospect according to Baseball America.  He is my dark horse for being a very capable catcher in the big leagues.

Chris has some power when he makes contact.  The problem is that he strikes out a lot.  He struck out in 30% of his at bats at AA last season according to FanGraphs.  He is getting on the older side for a prospect.

I have very little to go on in regards to his defense.  From what I read in Baseball America and hear from those that have seen him, he is a capable catcher with his arm being his greatest weakness.

He will start the year in AA which will allow me to see him first hand whn the Hooks come through Frisco.  I suspect that we will be seeing Chris at Minute Maid in September.

Now let's move to some players that I have seen on a more regular basis.

Carlos Corporan

When I saw Carlos last year for the first time, I thought to myself that this is not a major league catcher.  His getting to the bigs was an indictment of the Astros farm system for their lack of organizational depth at the catching position.  He was the fourth man up after a ton of injuries.

I still contend that he is not a big league catcher in either aspect of the game.

On defense, he threw out only 17% of baserunners.  That's enough about his defense.

On offense, he hit .188 with on OBP of .253.  Those kind of offensive struggles are only acceptable for a catcher who throws out everything that even twitches on the bases.

He will start the season in either Corpus, OKC, or with his release papers.  I say he sticks around for depth.  Someone has to catch at the AAA level.

Humberto Quintero

I have always liked Q, but he took a big step back last year behind the dish.  He gave up a career high 48 stolen bases and only threw out 23%.  His caught stealing numbers have dropped in the last couple of years.  It could be the product of a younger pitching staff that has trouble holding runners, but I don't believe that is the only reason.

My theory for the decline goes as follows.  Until the last two years, Quintero has not been heavily relied upon as the catcher.  In 2011, he played in 77 games, and he played in 87 in 2010.  Those are the most that he is ever played in once season.  His previous career high was 59 games.

More games means more wear and tear and a larger sample size.  I think we are seeing what he is at the age of 32.  He is a decent back up catcher.

He will be on the Major League roster for opening day, but he might end up being the odd man out when Jason Castro is ready to return to the bigs and if Chris Snyder holds down his spot.

Jason Castro

The 2008 first round pick has been struggling to stay healthy over the last year.  His bat didn't deliver in his first stint in 2010, but he showed amazing ability behind the dish as a rookie.  It was quite impressive how he handled the pitching staff, blocked balls, and threw out baserunners.

I still believe that he is our catcher of the future, but I think he starts this season off in AA or AAA in order to work out some of the kinks of being out so long, but I think he is an early season call up.

Chris Snyder

Snyder was signed as a free agent from the Pirates where he was relegated to backup duty.  His season ended early when he had surgery to fix a herniated disk in his back.  Let's not pretend that he was putting Johnny Bench like stats before the injury.  He throws out around 30% of baserunners in most seasons.  He threw out 23% last year in a relatively small sample size to Quintero's.

He has shown that he can hit for power over the course of his career, but he has struggled to stay on the field for the last couple of seasons.  It is unrealistic to expect him to the everyday guy.

His defensive stats are similar to Quintero's.  He isn't going to hit for an incredibly high average, but he might run into one and deposit the ball in the Crawford Boxes, which is why I give Snyder the edge over Quintero.

I believe that, if Castro isn't ready, Snyder will be the opening day catcher.  I still think that Castro will ultimately get the majority of the games behind the plate.

What's different about this spring?

I wrote a post in the past about patience.  Astros fans haven't had to do a lot of ground up rebuilding in the history of the franchise and therefore may not know what to expect.  Now that camp is opening, I want to reflect on seasons past and how I felt about the team entering spring training.

We will start in 1997, because that is as far back as I can remember paying deep attention to Spring Training.  This was the year that we were ready to make the leap.  The Reds had lost their swagger, and it was our division to lose.  That's exactly how we played.  We won the division with a record barely over .500.

2000 was a magical year with the team entering a beautiful new stadium and coming off of three straight division titles.  I wasn't too sure about how the pitching would transfer, but I didn't foresee the tough season that was about to happen.  What we did see was the emergence of Lance Berkman and a young pitcher named Wade Miller.  We also had inflated stats from Richard Hidalgo that he would never come close to again.

In 2004, I was sure we had the rotation and offensive firepower to go deep into the playoffs.  I was not alone in believing that we were one of the better teams in baseball.  That proved itself to be true.

So, what is the point that I am trying to get to?

Let's discuss spring training 2011.  I didn't know anyone who thought that this team was bound for the playoffs, but I did hear many justifications on how this team could be close to .500.  After all, their late season push had them at 73-77 at one point, and that was after the Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman trades.  Mills was working his magic.

Did you know anyone who was making the case for the 2011 team being close to .500?

I do, and that was me.  Last season I bought into the idea that our starting rotation could carry us to a mark close to .500, but isn't that problem?  We would have been satisfied with that, and Ed Wade likely still has a job.

The full collapse of last year might have been the best thing that could have happened.  Mediocrity is what keeps owners saying that we are just a Bill Hall or a Pedro Feliz away from being competitive.

I enter this spring feeling like this team has no chance at the playoffs or .500, and that is ok.  I would love to see the young Astros rise up and shock the world, but the realist in me says that this will not be the case.

Even with that complete lack of hope of being competitive, I am excited to see growth from our youngsters. I will pay attention to the minors in a way that hasn't been totally necessary since Hunsicker was run off.

We have a camp where every position is theoretically up for grabs, which will make this spring the most interesting spring training in my memory even though we will most likely finish with 90+ losses this season. 

My advice to Astros fans is to not talk yourself into why this team could be around .500.  Wins and losses this season are not as important as the player development that will happen.  You can't pick tomatoes ten seconds after you plant the seeds.

You need patience.