Game 2

Lucas Harrell was fantastic in this game.  He attacked the strike zone with the confidence of a veteran.  The stadium gun had his fastball at a consistant 92.  He struck out 4, allowed only 3 hits through 7, and, perhaps most importantly, walked no one.

Schafer and Martinez came through with a home run each, while Chris Johnson added a pair of doubles.  Mix that with some timely hitting from Snyder and some Rockies errors and you get a 7-3 Astros win.

The Turning Point:

Let's look deeper at the fourth inning.

In the top half, the Rockies got Carlos Gonzalez to third with one out after a double and a wild pitch.  After giving the appearance of staying back, the infield rushes in.  Troy Tulowitzki ground the ball to Marwin Gonzalez and Gonzalez in out at the plate.  A gutsy call from the coaching staff pays off.  Shortly after this, Tulo is thrown out trying to steal, and the top half ends.

The Astros come up in the bottom half.  Brian Bixler, who got the start over Altuve for some reason, reaches on an error and scores on a J.D. Martinez home run. 

Astros Player of the Game:

It would be incredibly irresponsible not to go with Lucas Harrell in this game.  What a performance by the young man.  Only 4 Rockies reached base in 7 innings and one of those was by fielder's choice.  I hope this is a sign of things to come.

What are you thinking Brad?

Rhiner Cruz entered the game with 2 out in the ninth, which seemed to baffle those around me.  In this case, I see what Mills was doing.  He was bringing in a young pitcher with electric stuff and very little ability to control said staff during a low pressure situation.  So, I will give him pass on that one.

Other Notes:

Chris Johnson stole a base, which might happen one more time this season.

While J.D. Martinez drove in 3 runs, he also grounded into 2 double plays.

I am blown away that a 49 year old with a 79 mph fastball is pitching in the bigs.  Jamie Moyer is a classy individual who loves the game, and I wish him luch this season.

Marwin Gonzalez is an adequate shortstop in the field.  He gets to the balls that you would expect him to and shows a decent arm.  On another note, Troy Tulowitzki is a great shortstop.

Brandon Lyon gave up a home run, but that isn't what concerns me.  Even his outs were hit hard.

Game 1

The game started out with some optimism.  The crowd was jacked up, Wandy got off to a good start, and the Astros scored first on a Carlos Lee single.  Four errors and a Tulowitzki shot later, it was a 5-3 loss in the opener.

The Chris Johnson error in the second didn't lead to a run, but it did force Wandy to work a little more.  Giving big league clubs extra outs is never a good idea.

The Turning Point

The Wandy throwing error is a ball that should have never left his hand.  They were not going to get Fowler on that play no matter what.  Instead of first and second and nobody out instead of second and third with none out.  The Rockies ultimately scored 3 runs on a sac fly, a Helton double, and a timely Cuddyer hit.

Let's look a little deeper at the inning a little deeper.  With second and third and no one out, Carlos Gonzalez hit a comebacker to the pitcher that kept the runners stuck in their current spots.  If Wandy eats the bunt from Fowler, this ball could have been a double play or at worst a force out at second.  I also accept the fact that Wandy might have thrown the ball to Schafer in center, but bear with me.  Tulowitzki hit a fly ball to right that scored a run, but hypothetically would have ended the inning had the comebacker to Wandy been a double play.

Fast forward to the eighth.  Eric Young enters the game as a pinch runner and steals second.  From where I was sitting, he looked out, but I have been assured that he was safe.

He proceeds to get hung up on a ball in the dirt.  Jason Castro decides to throw the ball behind the runner, which was the wrong move even if Marwin Gonzalez would have caught it.  Young would have still made third.  It is basic baseball fundamentals that when you have a runner frozen, you force him to commit to a location by running at him.  It was a poor decision that cost the team.  I am sure that Jason Castro knew it was a mistake as soon as he let the ball go.

Errors destroy Major League Baseball teams.

Hey Brad.  What are you thinking?

Why was Fernando Abad in against Troy Tulowitzki in the eighth?  I wondered to myself if Mills had forgotten that he is supposed to manage the game to the end.  This game was still in the balance.  It was not a solid loss at this point.

Fernando Abad is the last lefty that you want to face a right handed power bat like Tulo in a game situation.  Abad allowed an astronomical 4.82 HR/9 verses RH hitters last season according the Fangraphs, so naturally he did what the stats said that he very well might do.

Astros Player of the Game:

The first player of the game award goes to Carlos Lee.  He had 2 of the Astros 5 hits, hit his first HR of the season, and a 2 out RBI in the first.

Other Notes:

Altuve drew a walk, which puts him one quarter of the way to last season's total.

You down with OBP?

Before we get started, I would like to say that I did not watch Moneyball last night.

Much as been made this spring about Jose Altuve and his apparent struggles in the area of plate discipline.  After all, he walked a measly 5 times in 234 plate appearances, which is an astoundingly low number.  That's about 1 walk every 47 plate appearances.

On base percentage wasn't just an issue for Altuve, but it was a team wide issue.  The league average OBP hangs around .325.  This includes the greatest hitters in the game as well as the worst hitters.

The Astros had 7 players who were above average if we are using the .325 number.  Those players were Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Matt Downs, Brian Bogusevic, JB Shuck, and Brett Wallace.

Looking a little deeper you see that 2 of those players were traded, because they were valuable pieces.  Wallace had 2 months that were above average.  He had a tremendous April with an OBP of .458 and a strong June, where is OBP was .360 despite an average of .230.  The rest of his year was below average and got worse as his plate appearances decreased.

Heading into this season, we are looking at having an everyday lineup that returns 2 OBPs higher than the league average.  Carlos Lee at first and probably Bogusevic in right.  No, Jed Lowrie was not above average last year.  Although, he sported a .389 OBP in 2010.

For a point of reference, the Cardinals return 6 and added a seventh player with an above average OBP.  The Rangers also return 7.  Those were your league champs last year for a reason.

A look at the OBP standings for 2011 reveals that the Astros finished 23rd in the league in the category and many of the teams above them actually hit for a lower team batting average.  By the way, you will find the teams that either made or sniffed the playoffs near the top with an exception of the Braves, who finished below the Astros.

What's the big deal?

You can't score unless you get on base.

There are certainly some possible explanations for the low numbers.

1.  We have a lot of young players, who are still learning how to have a big league approach.  I would say that this is true except that 3 of our team leaders are either rookies or players with less than 2 full years of experience.

2.  Low averages means lower OBP.  Yes, most of the time.  This is especially true when a player has no plate discipline.  Anyone remember that Jeff Keppinger was hitting .307 when he was traded?  Anyone know that his OBP was only .320 during that time?  Clint Barmes hit .244 with an OBP of .312.  When you look at average, Keppinger seems far superior at putting the team in a position to score.  Granted, Kep did have a stronger slugging.  Jimmy Wynn once had an OBP of .436 while hitting .269.  He had 148 walks.  That stat amazed me, and I had to work it into this post somewhere.

3.  Pitchers are more aggressive because we lack power.  Our slugging in 2011 was 24th in MLB and that includes the statistics of Pence and Bourn.  It only got worse from there.  This has to be true though.  Why wouldn't a pitcher attach a lineup that hasn't shown much ability to hit with power.

4.  We have a player development problem.  Maybe plate discipline and working counts aren't emphasized on the farm like they should be.  It could possibly be the players we are bringing into the system.   They may have never been strong in the area of pitch selection.  If this is the case, expect it to change.  Take a look at the numbers for the Cardinals.

For the Astros to be successful on offense, they must get on base more.  It is that plain and simple.  So, how do we turn that statistic around?  That's for another post.

Astros Overreaction from the Weekend

The Astros are 2-0 in Spring Training and thus telling Bud Selig where he can shove it.  This team is poised to shock the world!

I hope you are catching my sarcasm, but a quick search of twitter will lead you to some reactions such as this.  A 2-0 start in Spring Training is nice, but it is not telling of what is to come.

There have been some encouraging signs especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Chris Johnson and J.D. Martinez appear to be locked in early.  Fernando Martinez has made good contact.  His home run today was clearly wind aided, but I like his opposite field approach.  I am not ready to plug him in the two hole and turn him loose, but he had a nice game today.

Another clear conclusion that we can draw is that our prospects suck, right?  No, that's not right.

Our top three offensive prospects in camp went 0-5 with 5 strikeouts.  I urge you to refrain from declaring these guys a bust based on today.  Going into this weekend, Singleton, DeShields, and Springer had a combined 0 at bats against Major League talent.  Singleton struck out against Lidge and Drew Storen.  You could see it on Singleton's face after the K.  You could tell that he was just owned by a big league slider.

Springer went down to Ryan Mattheus, who isn't a household name, but as a rookie last season posted a 2.81 ERA in 35 appearances. Springer also was introduced to one of the better setup men in baseball in Tyler Clippard.

DeShields was blown away by a legit closer in Drew Storen.

Brett Wallace continues to be overmatched by left handers.  I know there is push from folks on the twitter for Mills to allow Wallace to play against left handers on a more regular basis in order to build his confidence.  The argument has merit, but at some point, a guy is what he is.  The argument is especially accurate when your right handed option is Jason Michaels.

The Astros offense did what it is supposed to do to a pitcher who can't find his spots.  Tom Gorzelanny was all over the place.  He issued 4 free passes in 1 inning of work, and when he wasn't walking people, he was leaving the ball up.  He doesn't have the stuff to get away with that when he is in mid-season form much less in the second week of camp.

On another bright offensive note, J.D. Martinez has the kind of swing that can hit at any level.  Its the type of swing that doesn't have a huge amount of holes.  Its quick, compact, and powerful.  Its see the ball and hit the ball.  

Let's focus on J.A. Happ for just a moment.

Happ's performance wasn't all that encouraging or disappointing.  He was clearly working on his fastball, as it seemed to be the only pitch that he threw.  It appeared to be moving a little bit more than I remember from last year.  It looked to have a little more cut to it.  I will need to go find some video and check it out.

He was missing his spots, but most pitchers are still trying to get their feel.  I don't think that you can read too much into the stat line today.  He was clearly working on something.

In closing, we must take everything that we see for the first couple of weeks in stride.  We still know very little about how this thing will play out. 

Myers to Close

The blown save struck early and often for the 2011 Astros.  Opening day seemed to be a foreshadowing of what was to come.  I remember watching one game where the Astros relievers blew four saves in one game.  

The blown save is a bit of a strange stat in that a reliever that clearly has no intent to finish the game can be given a blown save if he loses the lead at any point during the game.  Since the hold stat was made up, shouldn't we be calling those blown holds.  That's not the point of this post, but that is just a personal beef I have with the blown save.

Now back to the task at hand.  Brad Mills announced that Brett Myers will be closing games this season.

I am not a subsriber to saving your ace reliever until the ninth inning, but if you can tell me who the Astros lights out reliever is, I will tell you when he should pitch.  My point is that we don't have much in the way of bullpen pitchers.  We have a few hard throwing guys with potential that are going to have to find a way to get the outs necessary to turn the game over to Myers.

Myers is not new to closing games.  He closed out games in 2007 for the Phillies when Tom Gordon went down with an injury.  He compiled 21 saves.

My initial reaction was to take a look at Brett's 2007 season on Baseball Reference.  His line for that year didn't seem very impressive.  He pitched in 68.2 innings, had an ERA 4.33, a WHIP of 1.282, walked 27, and had a BB/9 rate of 3.4.  He had a 10 plus strikeout per nine rate.

After looking at the stats a little deeper we find that Myers was much more effective as a reliever that season.  

Myers started three games, pitched 15.1 innnings, allowed 16 ER, a staggering 5.4 walks per nine, and an ERA of 9.39.  That is 15.1 innings of his total 68.2 innings.  I teach math for a living.  However, you don't need to teach math to understand the impact that statistics like this will have on final numbers.

Side note:  I hate walks.  Free baserunners, especially with no one out, have a way of coming back to bite you.  I especially hate walks from relievers in high leverage situations.

Let's look at Myers the reliever from 2007.

Myers was moved to relief after a second straight terrible start in 2007 after injuries decimated the Phillies bullpen.  He pitched 53.1 innings, allowed 17 ER, a much improved 3 walks per nine, and an ERA of 2.88.

If Myers the closer of 2012 can replicate those numbers, that gives a solid back end of the bullpen.

I also believe that this is a value building move from the front office.  Brett's value as a starter is known to teams around the league.  He is inconsistent and has been for most of his career.  His value as a reliever is still a big of an unknown.

Relievers pitch on a completely different schedule than starters do, and that might just be what jump starts Myers.  He just might be an medium starter, but he also may be an elite relief pitcher.  If he does perform as the closer, contenders are always looking for relief help.

What other impacts does this move have?

This means that Zach Duke, Livan Hernandez, Kyle Weiland, Jordan Lyles, and possibly Paul Clemens are fighting for two rotation spots instead of one assuming that Wandy, Norris, and Happ have three of the spots nailed down.

In conclusion, I like this move.  It is thinking outside of the box, which is something that we have been needing around here lately.  Myers has closed before, which makes him one of our most experienced relief pitchers.  What is a little sad is that he only has one year of relief under his belt.  We will see how it works out, but I suspect that if it does, Brett Myers will be pitching for somone else come July.

Assessing the Catchers

Spring Training games start in a week, and most positions on the field are up for grabs.  We will look at each position, and I will make some predictions about what I think we will see on opening day and beyond.

Today we will look at the catchers that are in camp.

What's important in a catcher?  A catchers defense, ability to stop the running game, and handling of the pitching staff are the most important aspects of catching.  Many offensively challenged catchers have long big league careers, because they have mastered the the defensive side of things.  Brad Ausmus is a perfect example of this.  I remember the calls for Mitch Meluskey in 2000, because he presented more of an offensive threat than Brad.  We all know how that worked out.

Rene Garcia

Rene Garcia is a product of the 2008 draft, which is same draft that landed Jason Castro in the first round.  He is only 21 years old.  When one looks at Rene Garcia's stats on Baseball Cube or FanGraphs, we see a player that has struggled offensively since rookie ball.  He peaked at .295 in rookie league and hovers around .240 most others.  We aren't loooking at an offensive threat.  He doesn't hit for average or for power.

What does he do?

Gathering information on Garcia has been a challenge, but what I have found is that he has a good arm and is quick behind the plate.  I am looking forward to seeing more of him.

Realistically he will start 2012 in Corpus Christi or back in Lancaster to start the season.

Chris Wallace

I want to believe in Chris Wallace.   He is a product of Cypress Fairbanks High and the University of Houston.  Its great when local kids get the call from the hometown team.  He comes in ranked as our number 30 prospect according to Baseball America.  He is my dark horse for being a very capable catcher in the big leagues.

Chris has some power when he makes contact.  The problem is that he strikes out a lot.  He struck out in 30% of his at bats at AA last season according to FanGraphs.  He is getting on the older side for a prospect.

I have very little to go on in regards to his defense.  From what I read in Baseball America and hear from those that have seen him, he is a capable catcher with his arm being his greatest weakness.

He will start the year in AA which will allow me to see him first hand whn the Hooks come through Frisco.  I suspect that we will be seeing Chris at Minute Maid in September.

Now let's move to some players that I have seen on a more regular basis.

Carlos Corporan

When I saw Carlos last year for the first time, I thought to myself that this is not a major league catcher.  His getting to the bigs was an indictment of the Astros farm system for their lack of organizational depth at the catching position.  He was the fourth man up after a ton of injuries.

I still contend that he is not a big league catcher in either aspect of the game.

On defense, he threw out only 17% of baserunners.  That's enough about his defense.

On offense, he hit .188 with on OBP of .253.  Those kind of offensive struggles are only acceptable for a catcher who throws out everything that even twitches on the bases.

He will start the season in either Corpus, OKC, or with his release papers.  I say he sticks around for depth.  Someone has to catch at the AAA level.

Humberto Quintero

I have always liked Q, but he took a big step back last year behind the dish.  He gave up a career high 48 stolen bases and only threw out 23%.  His caught stealing numbers have dropped in the last couple of years.  It could be the product of a younger pitching staff that has trouble holding runners, but I don't believe that is the only reason.

My theory for the decline goes as follows.  Until the last two years, Quintero has not been heavily relied upon as the catcher.  In 2011, he played in 77 games, and he played in 87 in 2010.  Those are the most that he is ever played in once season.  His previous career high was 59 games.

More games means more wear and tear and a larger sample size.  I think we are seeing what he is at the age of 32.  He is a decent back up catcher.

He will be on the Major League roster for opening day, but he might end up being the odd man out when Jason Castro is ready to return to the bigs and if Chris Snyder holds down his spot.

Jason Castro

The 2008 first round pick has been struggling to stay healthy over the last year.  His bat didn't deliver in his first stint in 2010, but he showed amazing ability behind the dish as a rookie.  It was quite impressive how he handled the pitching staff, blocked balls, and threw out baserunners.

I still believe that he is our catcher of the future, but I think he starts this season off in AA or AAA in order to work out some of the kinks of being out so long, but I think he is an early season call up.

Chris Snyder

Snyder was signed as a free agent from the Pirates where he was relegated to backup duty.  His season ended early when he had surgery to fix a herniated disk in his back.  Let's not pretend that he was putting Johnny Bench like stats before the injury.  He throws out around 30% of baserunners in most seasons.  He threw out 23% last year in a relatively small sample size to Quintero's.

He has shown that he can hit for power over the course of his career, but he has struggled to stay on the field for the last couple of seasons.  It is unrealistic to expect him to the everyday guy.

His defensive stats are similar to Quintero's.  He isn't going to hit for an incredibly high average, but he might run into one and deposit the ball in the Crawford Boxes, which is why I give Snyder the edge over Quintero.

I believe that, if Castro isn't ready, Snyder will be the opening day catcher.  I still think that Castro will ultimately get the majority of the games behind the plate.

What's different about this spring?

I wrote a post in the past about patience.  Astros fans haven't had to do a lot of ground up rebuilding in the history of the franchise and therefore may not know what to expect.  Now that camp is opening, I want to reflect on seasons past and how I felt about the team entering spring training.

We will start in 1997, because that is as far back as I can remember paying deep attention to Spring Training.  This was the year that we were ready to make the leap.  The Reds had lost their swagger, and it was our division to lose.  That's exactly how we played.  We won the division with a record barely over .500.

2000 was a magical year with the team entering a beautiful new stadium and coming off of three straight division titles.  I wasn't too sure about how the pitching would transfer, but I didn't foresee the tough season that was about to happen.  What we did see was the emergence of Lance Berkman and a young pitcher named Wade Miller.  We also had inflated stats from Richard Hidalgo that he would never come close to again.

In 2004, I was sure we had the rotation and offensive firepower to go deep into the playoffs.  I was not alone in believing that we were one of the better teams in baseball.  That proved itself to be true.

So, what is the point that I am trying to get to?

Let's discuss spring training 2011.  I didn't know anyone who thought that this team was bound for the playoffs, but I did hear many justifications on how this team could be close to .500.  After all, their late season push had them at 73-77 at one point, and that was after the Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman trades.  Mills was working his magic.

Did you know anyone who was making the case for the 2011 team being close to .500?

I do, and that was me.  Last season I bought into the idea that our starting rotation could carry us to a mark close to .500, but isn't that problem?  We would have been satisfied with that, and Ed Wade likely still has a job.

The full collapse of last year might have been the best thing that could have happened.  Mediocrity is what keeps owners saying that we are just a Bill Hall or a Pedro Feliz away from being competitive.

I enter this spring feeling like this team has no chance at the playoffs or .500, and that is ok.  I would love to see the young Astros rise up and shock the world, but the realist in me says that this will not be the case.

Even with that complete lack of hope of being competitive, I am excited to see growth from our youngsters. I will pay attention to the minors in a way that hasn't been totally necessary since Hunsicker was run off.

We have a camp where every position is theoretically up for grabs, which will make this spring the most interesting spring training in my memory even though we will most likely finish with 90+ losses this season. 

My advice to Astros fans is to not talk yourself into why this team could be around .500.  Wins and losses this season are not as important as the player development that will happen.  You can't pick tomatoes ten seconds after you plant the seeds.

You need patience. 

Off the Walling 1/30/12

This is a new section that will include random links and news of Astros goings on from around the web.  I chose the name Off the Walling in tribute to the great Denny Walling.  Off the Walling sounds like you are just picking stuff off the wall.

Denny Walling was named hitting coach for the Norfolk Tides of the Baltimore Orioles system.  Walling will always be remembered in my mind as the man who homered in the Mike Scott no hitter of 1986.  Walling is serving under Ron Johnson, who is the father of current Astro Chris Johnson.

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-01-26/sports/bal-orioles-announce-minor-league-staffs-20120126_1_coaching-staffs-gulf-coast-orioles-minor-league

  

The Return to Os-walt?

We got some news this week that the Astros may be in on Roy Oswalt.  My first thought was that I may need to bring my Oswalt jersey out of retirement for a few months.  Why would Roy be interested in a return to Houston?

Perhaps he wants the wins record as he sits just one win behind Joe Niekro.  Maybe he is just looking for a nice comfortable place to rebuild his value.  Maybe he really didn't want to leave Houston in the first place.

How will fans feel?

It didn't end well for Roy in Houston the first time around and many fans will hold that against him.  I think that we as fans need to remember that these guys play baseball professionally.  It is their job.

Imagine working a dead end job with an owner that seems disinterested at best.  That must have been how Roy felt.

I think fans in general will get over it.  I can't imagine that the majority of Astros fans would rise in disgust at the return of the Wizard.

What's in it for me?

The number one reason that I would like to see Roy back is that he is one of my favorites to ever wear the Astros uniform.  Who can forget his performance in game six of the 2005 NLCS?  He was masterful. 

I know that he isn't the same pitcher, and a lot has happened since then, but I would like to see one face on this team that reminds me of the good old days.

I am a pitching guy.  My favorite players throughout my baseball fan experience have mostly been pitchers.  I worshipped Mike Scott, Nolan Ryan, as well as many non-Astros pitchers such as Maddux and Eckersley.  Roy is a continuation of my infatuation with pitching.

What's in it for the Astros?

The Astros gain an experienced pitcher on a one year deal that is looking to rebuild his value.  If he gets off to a good start and pitches like the Roy of the past, he could be flipped for prospects again.  The trade might not involve the Phillies for a change.

Why sign veterans when a team is in rebuilding mode?  Veterans allow the Major League club to function while bringing along the kids in the minors.  Roy would allow the Astros to start Lyles and/or Happ in the minors.  They could find their groove and come up midseason after Oswalt is moved.

Zach Duke provides this same sort of opportunity.

The move will also appeal to the casual fan.  They will see that a player that they recognize not named Carlos Lee is returning to the franchise.  This sort of move gives the Crane organization street cred with the casual fan.

I place the odds of an Oswalt return at 90 to 1.  I just don't think the money makes sense.  He is asking for upwards of ten million for one year, and that is not something that the Astros should do.  If they can land him for five million, then I say that they should jump all over it.

What's in a Name?

I was driving with my son to the grocery store when I heard something unexpected.  They were talking at length about the Astros name change possibility on Dallas sports radio (1310 The Ticket).  This is not an anti-Dallas post.  I enjoy living here, and I really enjoy The Ticket.

The Hardline, which is the strongest baseball show on the station, discussed their opinions on the matter.  This post is in response to one premise raised by one of the gentlemen.  His point was that Houston wasn't known for space exploration anymore, and they should go forward with the change.

So that got me to thinking about nicknames throughout sports.  Do nicknames need to reflect something unique about your city?

My answer is a resounding no.

Anyone out there think the Oklahoma City Thunder were named that because of all the bad weather they get in Oklahoma?  Anyone ever been to Pittsburgh and run into a disproportionate number of Pirates or been mauled by a Tiger in Detroit?  Are people in San Francisco all very tall?  

I realize that a few of those teams have been around for many years, but some moved from the east coast to the west coast and still didn't feel the need to change their name.  The Braves have been in three different cities with the same name.

The idea of nicknames being representative of something unique about a locale is an expansion era idea.  It is not a requirement for a team to be a local success.

The Astros name is not linked to the space race era for many of us.  It is linked to a baseball team that we have grown up rooting for.  Richard Justice put it perfectly today.  The name is linked to family memories for many.  For me, I think about my grandmother every time I hear Milo Hamilton's voice.

Names may start out being representative of something unique, but they change as time goes on.  No one really cares where the name Yankees came from or even if there are a ton of Cardinals flying around Saint Louis.  The fans of those teams care about the memories built while investing time and emotion into those teams.

My second thought is that we are still space city until further notice.  The space race helped build Houston into what it is, and that is enough for me to say that the name Astros is still relevant to what we are about.  

Oil obvioiusly played a major role as well, but I don't think that we are going to change to the Oilers for obvious reasons.

I don't believe a name change is going to happen or that it is even seriously being considered, and I know Astros fans have been beat over the head with the topic for the last couple of days.  Sorry that I wrote about this for two days in a row and perpetuated this thing further, but the Astros name is important to me, and I didn't really think much about that until I was asked to.

A Team By Any Other Name

I have had some time to reflect on some of the changes that Mr. Crane has put into place.  I have a lot more positive than negative feelings, so lets sort this thing out.

I would like to see a change in the uniform, but I am not in favor of a return to the rainbow jerseys. The rainbows represent a singular era, and they belong in the 1980s.  I do want a return to the orange and navy color scheme.

I wouldn't be opposed to a new design using the same colors, but it would not be my first choice.  I would like to see a redesign of the original Astros uniforms.  We need something that can be consistent.  What do the Tigers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, etc have in common?  They haven't had major changes to their uniform.

We have not only had changes, but we have completely changed our color scheme twice.  I say a redesign of the original Astros uniform gives us brand recognition.

As for the hat, I think that a return to the star and the H is a given.  That is Astros baseball, and I am not sure why it ever went away.  The symbol is synonymous with Houston at least it should be.

Bringing food into the ballpark is a big win for me.   I live in Dallas and attend several games at in Arlington every year, and I am allowed to bring in food.  It is really one of the things that was a pleasant suprise upon attending my first games out there.

I have a family of four, and I don't have the kind of job that pays a huge amount of money.  We sit high, park cheap, and bring a picnic to the park.  It really is a great thing.  The people with the disposable income to spend still buy food.  The concession lines are still packed, and Jim Crane knows this.

I have no comment on ticket prices, because I only come down for one or two games a year.  Most of my Astros watching happens when they play the Rangers or on TV.

The name change idea is one that I am completely opposed to.  I was angry after the move to the AL was made official, but not mad enough to jump ship.  If the team I grew up rooting for essentially dissappears, I don't know what I would do.  It would be tough.  I do belive that I will never face this situation, because Mr. Crane has to understand the consequences to rebranding.

I am at a stage with this team where I am pulling for this team solely for the names on the front.  I haven't built an attachment to any of the players that are currently on the roster.  I was, and remain, a big Pence fan.  Changing the name on the front in a time such as this would test the bounds of my loyalty.

Like I said earlier, I don't think Mr. Crane will go forward with a name change, but I do see uniform changes coming.  All I know is that I am excited about the direction that the club is going.

Patience

Jack Cust is hardly the savior of the Astros franchise.  He isn't the guy that springs us to contention, and he is not intended to be that guy.  Judging from Twitter reaction yesterday, people were seeming to believe that we had signed a starting outfielder.  Clearly Luhnow had lost his mind.  I have come to this conclusion.  Astros fans have very little experience with truly rebuilding.  I was born in 1980, so I don't have much to draw on before that time.  The Astros teams of the eighties were never terrible. They were always within shouting distance of .500.  They finished about .500 every year but 1987, 1984, and 1982 with the worst record coming in 1987 with a record of 76-86.  Notice that the losing was spread out, and there were no terrible years.

Let's look at the nineties.  There were only two losing season in the nineties, and those seasons were 1990 at 75-87 and 1991 at 65-97.  That is hardly rock bottom rebuilding considering that we had a young core already in place with a young Craig Biggio and the 1991 Rookie of the Year, Jeff Bagwell.  We had three division titles during the nineties and battled during the middle of the decade.  Who knows what would have happened in 1994 when we were 0.5 games back win the strike happened.  Again, there was not sustained rebuilding going on at this time.

The 2000s brought some of the most special Astros moments with a World Series appearance and the construction of Minute Maid Park.  The first season at then Enron Field was a tough one.  It was clear that the team was still build for the dome, because our pitchers were getting knocked all over the place.  We rallied in 2001 with young pitching to win the division again.  We wouldn't win another division title, but we saw two wild card seasons that lead to some of our finest moments.  We would only have two sub .500 seasons in the decade in 2007 and 2009.  

However, 2010 and 2011 would prove to be two of our worst seasons, and the writing was on the wall.  The Astros were going to need to undertake their first major rebuilding project in my lifetime.  From 2009 to 2011 was the first time in my lifetime that the Astros had a losing record in three consecutive years. 

I didn't realize how good we have had it until I started looking at the records over the years.  We really do have a lot to hang out hats on.  However, patience may not be our best attribute.  We aren't used to waiting long periods of time for a turnaround.  A five year wait feels like an eternity to me, but we will emerge again and continue our tradition of consistant winning records.

Carlos Lee Chatter

It was reported today that the Rays have inquired about Carlos Lee.  If that is the case, the Astros will need to eat a large amount of his contract.  There is a joke in there somewhere about Lee's offseason conditioning habits.  With one year remaining on his contract, it would be unwise not to eat the necessary amount of money to get this done in the offseason.  Here is why.

Carlos has shown a trend over the last couple of years of starting slow.  This year will likely be no different.  If he starts slow, his trade value decreases.  But, you may say, what if he starts fast?  Is that a risk you are willing to take?

What good does it do the club to keep him around?  We are talking about a guy being paid 19.000,000 for an oWAR of 2.5 in 2011 and -0.5 in 2010. Oh, and he can't play defense.  Next year we lose him for nothing.  It is better to pay him to play somewhere else for a year and get a few pieces back in return.

The Rays are the perfect place for Carlos.  He would DH every day, and never even have to pack a glove.  Its a great clubhouse with a manager that gets the most out of each player.  Carlos could blossom in this environment.

I have heard names floated around on twitter from various sources.   These names include guys like Brignac and Davis.  I would love either or both, but the Astros brass has to pony up the cash first.  Hopefully I will be writing a reaction piece soon.

Loyalty: A Response to Maury Brown

Maury Brown is a respected business of sports writer, and I am one of those that respects him.  This past week he went trolling for angry Astros fans on twitter and succeeded in this quest.  He said something that has stuck with me.  It included the term "blind loyalty", and he nearly repeated the exact line to Astros County.  I have spent time trying to figure out what he means by this.  He certainly isn't using it in a positive way.

What is blind loyalty?  It implies that one is following another unconditionally without regard to the actions of the leader.  The problem that I have is that this is baseball that we are talking about.  We aren't talking about following a potential dictator who will surely bring on World War III.  I am well aware of Mr. Crane's past business issues and so was MLB.  They deemed him to be a worthy candidate.  We all know that this was a matter of convenience with the push for the Astros to move to the AL.  I don't speak for all Astros fans, but Mr. Crane was not my first choice to own the club, but he is the man that we are stuck with.

We were here first.  The fans were here before he was.  We already have years of devotion invested in this team.  So, I am supposed to switch my allegiance that I have maintained for 30 years?  No.  I was here first.  This is where I feel slighted by MLB more than anywhere else.  Crane was not good enough to be approved for the Rangers, but he was good enough for us, because it was convenient for MLB.  So, we are stuck with the guy that couldn't be approved for any other team.  It is not my fault that this happened, and I won't switch allegiances, because Bud and his cronies stuck us with this.  Read my first ever blog post to find out how deep my Astros roots run.

Is it really blind loyalty?  The answer is yes, but it is only yes, because we can't tell the future.  Loyalty has to be blind until we see the plan taking shape.  This leads me to my shocking revelation.  The Maury Brown that interviewed with Astros County is from the future.  He must be.  That's the only way he would be able to judge us for "blind loyalty".

Another point from Brown is one that I completely agree with.  In fact, I have always believed that sports franchises belong to the city first.  Owning a franchise is far different from running a freight company.  Many fans, including myself, are displaced and remain loyal to the home town teams of their youth.  It is a connection to where they are from.  It reminds them of their childhood in many cases.  Mr. Crane isn't just an owner.  He is a steward and protector of a city institution.

I am still not 100% sure what Maury Brown was implying in his statements, but I do understand what loyalty is.  My loyalty is to Houston, and the Astros are an institution of the city, therefore I must have faith in the new keepers of the franchise until they show me that I shouldn't.  I might be blind, but so be it.