You down with OBP?

Before we get started, I would like to say that I did not watch Moneyball last night.

Much as been made this spring about Jose Altuve and his apparent struggles in the area of plate discipline.  After all, he walked a measly 5 times in 234 plate appearances, which is an astoundingly low number.  That's about 1 walk every 47 plate appearances.

On base percentage wasn't just an issue for Altuve, but it was a team wide issue.  The league average OBP hangs around .325.  This includes the greatest hitters in the game as well as the worst hitters.

The Astros had 7 players who were above average if we are using the .325 number.  Those players were Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Matt Downs, Brian Bogusevic, JB Shuck, and Brett Wallace.

Looking a little deeper you see that 2 of those players were traded, because they were valuable pieces.  Wallace had 2 months that were above average.  He had a tremendous April with an OBP of .458 and a strong June, where is OBP was .360 despite an average of .230.  The rest of his year was below average and got worse as his plate appearances decreased.

Heading into this season, we are looking at having an everyday lineup that returns 2 OBPs higher than the league average.  Carlos Lee at first and probably Bogusevic in right.  No, Jed Lowrie was not above average last year.  Although, he sported a .389 OBP in 2010.

For a point of reference, the Cardinals return 6 and added a seventh player with an above average OBP.  The Rangers also return 7.  Those were your league champs last year for a reason.

A look at the OBP standings for 2011 reveals that the Astros finished 23rd in the league in the category and many of the teams above them actually hit for a lower team batting average.  By the way, you will find the teams that either made or sniffed the playoffs near the top with an exception of the Braves, who finished below the Astros.

What's the big deal?

You can't score unless you get on base.

There are certainly some possible explanations for the low numbers.

1.  We have a lot of young players, who are still learning how to have a big league approach.  I would say that this is true except that 3 of our team leaders are either rookies or players with less than 2 full years of experience.

2.  Low averages means lower OBP.  Yes, most of the time.  This is especially true when a player has no plate discipline.  Anyone remember that Jeff Keppinger was hitting .307 when he was traded?  Anyone know that his OBP was only .320 during that time?  Clint Barmes hit .244 with an OBP of .312.  When you look at average, Keppinger seems far superior at putting the team in a position to score.  Granted, Kep did have a stronger slugging.  Jimmy Wynn once had an OBP of .436 while hitting .269.  He had 148 walks.  That stat amazed me, and I had to work it into this post somewhere.

3.  Pitchers are more aggressive because we lack power.  Our slugging in 2011 was 24th in MLB and that includes the statistics of Pence and Bourn.  It only got worse from there.  This has to be true though.  Why wouldn't a pitcher attach a lineup that hasn't shown much ability to hit with power.

4.  We have a player development problem.  Maybe plate discipline and working counts aren't emphasized on the farm like they should be.  It could possibly be the players we are bringing into the system.   They may have never been strong in the area of pitch selection.  If this is the case, expect it to change.  Take a look at the numbers for the Cardinals.

For the Astros to be successful on offense, they must get on base more.  It is that plain and simple.  So, how do we turn that statistic around?  That's for another post.

Astros Overreaction from the Weekend

The Astros are 2-0 in Spring Training and thus telling Bud Selig where he can shove it.  This team is poised to shock the world!

I hope you are catching my sarcasm, but a quick search of twitter will lead you to some reactions such as this.  A 2-0 start in Spring Training is nice, but it is not telling of what is to come.

There have been some encouraging signs especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Chris Johnson and J.D. Martinez appear to be locked in early.  Fernando Martinez has made good contact.  His home run today was clearly wind aided, but I like his opposite field approach.  I am not ready to plug him in the two hole and turn him loose, but he had a nice game today.

Another clear conclusion that we can draw is that our prospects suck, right?  No, that's not right.

Our top three offensive prospects in camp went 0-5 with 5 strikeouts.  I urge you to refrain from declaring these guys a bust based on today.  Going into this weekend, Singleton, DeShields, and Springer had a combined 0 at bats against Major League talent.  Singleton struck out against Lidge and Drew Storen.  You could see it on Singleton's face after the K.  You could tell that he was just owned by a big league slider.

Springer went down to Ryan Mattheus, who isn't a household name, but as a rookie last season posted a 2.81 ERA in 35 appearances. Springer also was introduced to one of the better setup men in baseball in Tyler Clippard.

DeShields was blown away by a legit closer in Drew Storen.

Brett Wallace continues to be overmatched by left handers.  I know there is push from folks on the twitter for Mills to allow Wallace to play against left handers on a more regular basis in order to build his confidence.  The argument has merit, but at some point, a guy is what he is.  The argument is especially accurate when your right handed option is Jason Michaels.

The Astros offense did what it is supposed to do to a pitcher who can't find his spots.  Tom Gorzelanny was all over the place.  He issued 4 free passes in 1 inning of work, and when he wasn't walking people, he was leaving the ball up.  He doesn't have the stuff to get away with that when he is in mid-season form much less in the second week of camp.

On another bright offensive note, J.D. Martinez has the kind of swing that can hit at any level.  Its the type of swing that doesn't have a huge amount of holes.  Its quick, compact, and powerful.  Its see the ball and hit the ball.  

Let's focus on J.A. Happ for just a moment.

Happ's performance wasn't all that encouraging or disappointing.  He was clearly working on his fastball, as it seemed to be the only pitch that he threw.  It appeared to be moving a little bit more than I remember from last year.  It looked to have a little more cut to it.  I will need to go find some video and check it out.

He was missing his spots, but most pitchers are still trying to get their feel.  I don't think that you can read too much into the stat line today.  He was clearly working on something.

In closing, we must take everything that we see for the first couple of weeks in stride.  We still know very little about how this thing will play out.